AGP Executive Report

Energy Resilience: Puerto Rico restored power to most customers after a major blackout blamed on a fault in an underground cable, with generators extended through 2027 as FEMA support continues. Oil & Trade Flows: The U.S. recorded zero Iraqi crude imports for a fourth straight week, while Venezuela and Mexico remained key suppliers alongside Canada, Brazil and Colombia. Geopolitics & Prices: As the U.S.-Iran conflict intensifies around the Strait of Hormuz, analysts warn a ground operation could be on the table—raising new risks for global energy markets. Forced-Labor Tariffs: The Trump administration rolled out double-digit forced-labor tariffs on more than 60 countries under Section 301, a move critics say sidesteps Congress and reshuffles earlier tariff actions. Regional Connectivity: Mexico’s industrial corridor push highlights binational transport links across the Rio South Texas region—bridges, ports, rail and airports—to move goods with Mexico’s automotive cluster. Renewables & Power Projects: Cuba is seeking deeper cooperation with India in renewable energy and biotech, framing sanctions pressure as the driver for new partnerships. Offshore Services: Expro completed its Enhanced Drilling acquisition to expand managed pressure drilling and riserless mud recovery capabilities, including plans to scale into Latin America.

Mexico–U.S. Security: The Trump administration is escalating pressure on Mexico over alleged cartel ties to local politicians, moving beyond past focus on drug bosses and targeting officials through visa revocations and indictments. Caribbean Power Build: Mayagüez (Puerto Rico) is starting a $2.6M solar-plus-battery project for the Central American Stadium to cut electricity costs and keep backup power during outages. Venezuela Energy & Sanctions: The U.S. is tightening its Cuba energy and petroleum-related sanctions, while broader scrutiny of Venezuela’s oil revenues continues amid earthquake recovery and claims about untracked funds. Oil Market Backdrop: Reports highlight how Middle East disruptions are pushing crude back above $100, raising fuel and power-cost risks across the region. Critical Minerals: A new look at rare-earth supply chains points to expanding recovery and seabed sourcing efforts, including Japan’s rare-earth ambitions, as the energy transition reshapes procurement.

Tariff Shock Hits the Americas: The U.S. is rolling out a more “court-tested” tariff wall, including new 10%–12.5% forced-labor duties covering dozens of countries—raising fresh uncertainty for Latin American exporters. Energy & Trade Crossfire: Guyana is among the latest targets with a 12.5% U.S. tariff, while broader U.S. tariff moves also loom over regional supply chains and energy-linked goods. Venezuela Under Pressure: Trump again said Venezuela is “not ready” for elections, while reporting highlights the ongoing squeeze around Venezuela’s oil money and sanctions-related pressure on energy activity. Regional Power Projects: Caribbean-focused financing is moving—IDB Invest approved up to US$500 million for ANSA McAL, including energy efficiency and sustainability reporting. El Niño Risk: Colombia declared a national disaster over El Niño threats, underscoring how climate shocks are now directly shaping energy planning and resilience.

El Niño Fallout in Colombia: President Gustavo Petro declared a 12-month national disaster over El Nino-driven drought risks, launching a response fund, water-saving measures, and a push to expand solar capacity under the Colombia Solar program. Ecuador-Canada Trade: Ecuador and Canada signed a free trade deal in Ottawa, aiming for duty-free access for 99.6% of Ecuador’s exportable products, with safeguards for sensitive farm goods. Venezuela Election Tensions: Trump said Venezuela isn’t ready for elections, praising acting president Delcy Rodriguez while pointing to oil cooperation as a key pillar of the relationship. US Tariff Shock With Energy Angle: The US imposed new 10%–12.5% tariffs on 60+ trading partners over forced-labor claims, with broad coverage but notable exemptions including oil and gas—raising cost and inflation concerns across supply chains. Nuclear Push in the US: Trump highlighted a White House push to accelerate nuclear power after four companies met a “critical” milestone for new reactors.

Venezuela Energy Week Push: The African Energy Chamber (AEC) will join Venezuela Energy Week investment showcases in London and Houston, aiming to match international capital with Venezuela’s recovering oil and services sector. Venezuela Earthquake Fallout: One month after twin quakes, Venezuela’s death toll has topped 5,300 and thousands still lack homes, while recovery funding remains a flashpoint. Gold Access Standoff: Caracas is pressing the Bank of England to release 31 tons of Venezuelan gold held since 2008, arguing the estimated $4bn value is urgently needed for earthquake recovery. US Tariff Shock With Spillover Risk: The US imposed new 10%–12.5% tariffs on 60 trading partners under forced-labor claims, with exemptions including oil and gas—raising uncertainty for regional supply chains. Brazil Storage Auction Watch: Atlas Renewable is evaluating up to 500 MW of BESS projects for Brazil’s first capacity reserve auction, pushing for payments that reward curtailment avoidance. Mexico Cross-Border Industry: A San Luis Potosí delegation explored Rio South Texas as a gateway for automotive supply-chain expansion. Venezuela Energy Sector Branding: CAMIMPEG was confirmed as a national sponsor for Venezuela Energy Week 2026 in Caracas.

Venezuela Energy Overhaul: PDVSA partners are racing to migrate oil and gas contracts by July 28 under a new hydrocarbons framework, after last month’s earthquakes disrupted operations; the talks involve major firms including Chevron, Repsol and Eni, with key negotiations focused on the new royalty and tax terms. Disaster Reconstruction Funding: The World Bank estimates Venezuela’s June twin quakes caused about $19.6 billion in direct physical damage, underscoring the need for faster reconstruction money to prevent long-term economic harm. Brazil Power & Storage: Petrobras received 292.7 million euros (1.7 billion reais) from the federal government for diesel marketing subsidies, while separate coverage points to Brazil’s growing battery storage market momentum. Rare Earths for the Energy Transition: Argentina’s CONICET is exploring rare earths in Buenos Aires paleocoasts to support electric motor supply, as Brazil is also highlighted as a rising rare-earths jurisdiction for U.S. supply-chain diversification. Trade Shock With Energy Spillovers: The U.S. is set to impose 10%–12.5% tariffs on 60 partners over forced-labor enforcement claims, just as temporary levies expire—raising uncertainty for Mexico and other regional exporters tied to energy-linked supply chains. Middle East Shipping Risk: Houthis attacked Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, pushing oil above $100 and reviving concerns about chokepoints like Hormuz and the Red Sea affecting global energy flows. Caribbean Digital-Grid Link: Trinidad and Tobago is exploring a dedicated AI data centre, with energy reliability and compute capacity framed as core competitiveness issues for the region.

Oil & Gas Markets: TotalEnergies reported Q2 net profit doubling to $5.4bn as Middle East conflict lifted crude and refining margins, while production fell 4% on disruptions tied to Hormuz access. Energy Security: A Reuters poll says the Iran war is deepening a 2026 global oil deficit (avg 1.5m bpd), but expects a 2027 oversupply as Gulf flows recover and US supply stays strong. Latin America Power & Renewables: Brazil set compensation rules for wind and solar curtailment, while Argentina’s distributed solar capacity rose 34.5% in H1. Grid Flexibility: ENGIE brought two 50MW/100MWh battery storage projects in Scotland to full commercial operation, underscoring the region’s push for balancing capacity. Regional Climate Resilience: St. Kitts and Nevis advanced its first National Loss and Damage Strategy via a stakeholder workshop. Geopolitics & Energy: US-Iran escalation and shipping disruptions around the Red Sea/Hormuz continue to ripple through global energy expectations, keeping volatility elevated. Venezuela Legal/Policy Watch: A US judge set June 1, 2027 for Maduro and Cilia Flores’ drug-trafficking trial in New York, with defense motions scheduled to address capture legality.

Venezuela-US Legal Showdown: A US judge set a June 1, 2027 trial date for ousted President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores on drug trafficking charges, with a November 17 hearing for defense motions including challenges to how they were captured. Venezuela Oil Transparency Fight: Lawmakers are pressing the White House to explain where Venezuelan oil money is going after analysis says Washington collected $13bn+ from oil sales while Venezuela recorded only a single $300m transfer back. US Energy Oversight Pressure: Energy lobbyists are bracing for aggressive congressional oversight if Democrats win in November, with Venezuela oil intervention and related deals flagged as potential targets. Middle East Energy Risk: Oil prices jumped as the US carried out another wave of strikes on Iran and warned it would target “one bridge or power plant” per Hormuz attack, pushing Brent toward $95. Cuba Humanitarian Relief: The US State Department awarded $60m to Catholic Relief Services to expand emergency food and hygiene aid across Cuba amid the island’s ongoing energy and economic squeeze. Brazil Power & Storage: Windey Energy plans Brazil BESS production at a former Siemens Gamesa factory, signaling continued momentum in grid-scale storage. Argentina Economy Watch: Argentina’s economy contracted again in May, reinforcing uneven growth as Milei’s term continues and credit upgrades build investor confidence.

Venezuela-US Court Clash: Ousted President Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores return to a New York federal court hearing on their drug trafficking case, with prosecutors and defense discussing a possible June 2027 trial start and likely arguments over whether Maduro has head-of-state immunity. Energy Security Pressure: The IEA warns Middle East hostilities are tightening global oil and gas supply risks, even as alternative routes and extra exports from the US, Brazil, Venezuela and others help cushion markets. Food-Fertilizer Shock Risk: UN-linked reporting says conflict-driven energy and fertilizer disruptions could push millions more into chronic hunger by 2030, with Hormuz uncertainty a key worry. Venezuela Investment Push: The African Energy Chamber urges international operators to expand in Venezuela as reforms aim to reopen oil and gas, including reduced fiscal burdens and stronger arbitration protections, ahead of Venezuela Energy Week in October. Argentina Fertilizer Build: Tecnimont wins a contract for a €1.5bn Argentina urea/ammonia complex at Bahía Blanca, targeting 2.1m tonnes/year and boosting the regional fertilizer supply chain. Caribbean Sanctions Hit Tourism: Spain’s Meliá shuts down operations in Cuba, citing legal and financial hurdles from US sanctions, dealing another blow to the island’s tourism-linked energy demand.

Argentina Credit Boost: Moody’s upgraded Argentina’s rating from Caa1 to B3 with a positive outlook, citing lower default risk tied to stabilization, fiscal surpluses, and improving external conditions, with energy and mining drawing more foreign investment. Water Infrastructure Deadline: Mexico’s Rosarito desalination plant must start within 90 days (early August) after a contract award shift, aiming to supply Tijuana, Rosarito and parts of Ensenada by 2029-30. Energy Market Pressure: Oil futures climbed as Iran-Hormuz tensions and shipping disruptions kept supply risks elevated, while UN warnings linked the conflict to a potential hunger shock that could add nearly 19 million people to chronic hunger by 2030. Maritime Safety in Focus: Guyana raised the ferry disaster death toll to at least 41 after the MV Barima capsized, with dozens still missing and investigations into factors like crew conduct underway. Regional Trade Talks: USMCA’s first annual review resumed as US-Mexico teams met in Mexico City, with Mexico pushing to protect tariff advantages amid broader tariff escalation. Offshore Wind Logistics: A major offshore wind installation vessel docked in Curaçao en route to Equinor’s Empire Wind project, underscoring growing Caribbean hub activity for clean power buildouts.

Ferry Disaster in Guyana: A capsized MV Barima off Georgetown left at least 27 dead and 83 missing, with 69 rescued; authorities expanded the search area to 1,070 sq km and said the passenger manifest may have been inaccurate. Argentina Homecoming: Thousands welcomed the World Cup squad back in Buenos Aires after the Spain loss; Messi was not seen on the flight, and the team rode an open-top bus amid rain and fireworks. Energy Security & Oil Markets: Commentary highlights how oil prices and flows are shaped more by geopolitical risk than supply shortages, with Strait of Hormuz disruptions managed via inventories and diversified routes. Food Affordability Pressure: A UN SOFI 2026 report says global hunger fell for a third year, but one in three people can’t afford a healthy diet—fueling long-run food and nutrition stress. Venezuela Oil Trade Momentum: U.S. data show Venezuela’s trade growth far outpacing the global average, underscoring how policy shifts are reopening oil-linked flows. Colombia Power Update: Colombia’s PV capacity topped 4.58 GW, with 1.19 GW under testing, signaling continued solar buildout.

Tariffs and energy trade risk: The U.S. says it won’t renew USMCA in its current form at the six-year review, keeping the pact in force but adding annual uncertainty for North American energy-linked supply chains. Oil supply and geopolitics: Chevron is shutting in Gulf of Mexico production ahead of Tropical Depression Two as it could strengthen into Tropical Storm Bertha, with potential oil losses across the U.S. Gulf. Regional energy access: A World Bank-linked push highlights how gas flaring and energy insecurity hit jobs and daily power reliability hardest where access is fragile. Brazil energy and infrastructure: Brazil’s public broadcaster cut shortwave hours for Rádio Nacional da Amazônia due to technical problems and energy costs, underscoring how power expenses ripple into public services. Amazon pressure: Brazil’s crackdown on illegal mining links gold’s record rally and global trade turmoil to renewed incursions into Indigenous areas. Power and storage tech: KBR won an ammonia technology contract for Argentina, adding momentum to industrial decarbonization projects. Energy security debate: A U.S. envoy urged Alberta and Saskatchewan to meet U.S. oil demand, as trade talks and tariff threats continue to shape cross-border energy planning.

Fertilizer Push in Argentina: KBR was selected by Pampa Energía to supply purifier technology for a new ammonia-urea complex in Bahía Blanca, targeting a 3,430 tpd ammonia plant and operations by end-2029, with the project positioned as a major regional food-security hub. Energy Transition Watch: A week of coverage also flagged how the transition is still “stuck on paper,” even as policy and investment momentum builds across the region. Geopolitics and Oil Prices: Commentary on the U.S.-Iran standoff and Hormuz risk kept pressure on global oil markets, with knock-on effects for Latin American energy firms and costs. Venezuela Earthquake Fallout: After major quakes in northern Venezuela, reporting highlighted a widening humanitarian gap—rubble, missing-person uncertainty, and strained recovery capacity—underscoring how disasters can quickly become energy-and-infrastructure crises. Regional Energy Tech: Separate coverage noted ethanol policy momentum in the region, including moves to expand biofuel blending targets and private plant participation.

EV Manufacturing in Brazil: BYD’s Camaçari, Bahia plant hit its 100,000th new energy vehicle milestone and topped 5,500 workers, with capacity plans rising to 150,000 vehicles per year in phase one and eventual 600,000; BYD is also pushing to source 50% of components locally by early 2027. Global LNG Market: New data shows the U.S. supplied about 93% of global LNG export growth in 2025, with exports up 27% year-on-year to 5.2 trillion cubic feet as the U.S. keeps widening its lead. U.S.-Brazil Trade & Energy Spillover: Brazil’s Lula demanded Trump explain 25% U.S. tariffs under Section 301, arguing the dispute is political; the tariff package includes exemptions that touch some energy products. Food Safety Linked to Mexico: Walmart pulled Mexican iceberg lettuce after FDA-linked cyclospora concerns tied to an outbreak of severe diarrhea, with products traced to a central Mexico farm. Chile Mining Disruption: A major atmospheric river is disrupting operations in Chile’s copper heartland, raising risks to pits and haulage as metals markets react to supply threats and global growth worries. World Cup Spotlight (Non-energy but regional attention): The first-ever World Cup final halftime show drew global headlines, while Argentina fans flooded Times Square ahead of Spain vs. Argentina.

Caribbean Data-Center Push: Trinidad and Tobago signed agreements with U.S. firms to pave the way for large AI/data centers, including a planned 300 MW facility, raising immediate questions about power demand and environmental impact. Cybersecurity in Energy: Colombia’s Ecopetrol said a cyberattack exposed data tied to about 3,300 accounts, underscoring growing digital risk for the region’s energy operators. Venezuela-U.S. Rapprochement: Reporting highlights a surprising thaw in U.S.-Venezuela relations after the earthquake response, including meetings involving Venezuela’s interior minister, with sanctions politics still unresolved. Venezuela Power Recovery Deals: Venezuela signed agreements with Russia and U.S. energy firms aimed at injecting 7,400 MW into the national electric system as it works through quake damage and grid fragility. Offshore Brazil Expansion: Gulf Marine Services secured a four-year offshore Brazil charter for a self-elevating accommodation unit, signaling continued investment in Latin America’s offshore support market.

Middle East Energy Shock: The U.S. launched new airstrikes against Iran after an attack in Jordan killed American troops, with CENTCOM saying the goal is to degrade Iran’s ability to restrict oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global supply route. Cybersecurity for Oil: Colombia’s Ecopetrol said a cyberattack stole data tied to about 3,300 user accounts, affecting cloud storage across 15 group subsidiaries, while warning extortion demands could have financial and reputational fallout. Disaster Risk in Mexico: A 7.3 quake hit Mexico’s Chiapas near the Mexico-Guatemala border, triggering tsunami precautions that were later lifted; authorities reported injuries and minor damage, including responses to gas leaks. Trade and Energy Costs: The U.S. imposed 25% tariffs on many Brazilian imports starting July 22, with a wider exemptions list, raising uncertainty for regional energy-linked industries. Caribbean Fuel Retail: The Dominican Republic will host a major Caribbean service-station summit in November, aiming to bring together regulators and operators amid investment and regulatory change.