AGP Executive Report

Cuba Pressure Escalates: The U.S. Supreme Court revived Havana-linked confiscation claims, strengthening lawsuits that target cruise operators using seized Havana port facilities, as Washington simultaneously signals tougher Cuba action amid renewed talk of military intervention. Blackout Reality: In Havana, residents say power cuts are pushing them toward a “deal” with Trump, underscoring how sanctions and fuel shortages are colliding with daily survival. Oil Shock Still Bites: A new analysis warns the worst global energy crisis may not be over—oil reserves are being drawn down and summer demand could bring fresh strain if the Strait of Hormuz stays effectively constrained. Food Cost Politics: UK-style price caps are being questioned as a fix for staples, with farmers warning energy-driven cost spikes could simply squeeze production. Argentina Macro Boost: The IMF cleared Argentina’s latest review, freeing $1B, a reminder that financing relief can matter for energy and industry stability.

US–Cuba Pressure Escalates: The US renewed threats of military action against Cuba as Secretary of State Marco Rubio said diplomacy is “not high” and called the island a “national security threat,” following the US indictment of Raúl Castro over the 1996 shootdown of civilian planes. Energy & Trade Shock Context: The wider backdrop is still the Strait of Hormuz standoff, with warnings that a prolonged closure could push crude toward $200/bbl—raising costs and reshaping routes. Mexico Power Pipeline: Mexico’s SENER launched a call for strategic renewable generation and standalone storage projects (0.7MW+), aiming to speed permitting and grid connections with CFE-linked planning. Colombia Grid Bottleneck Fix: Colombia’s UPME set new procedures to allocate transmission capacity faster for projects with obligations or environmental licensing. Regional Shipping Risk: Malaysia urged tighter maritime waste controls for the Strait of Melaka as traffic rises, citing past oil-spill volumes.

Cuba Pressure Escalates: The U.S. unsealed a decades-old indictment of former Cuban leader Raúl Castro over the 1996 shootdown of civilian planes, ratcheting up fears of a Venezuela-style playbook and prompting Havana to call it a pretext for military aggression. Legal Fallout for Cuba-Era Assets: In a separate major U.S. Supreme Court ruling, cruise lines face renewed exposure under the Helms-Burton Act after the court revived claims tied to confiscated Havana port property—potentially reigniting $440M+ disputes. Hormuz Energy Shock Talks: Iran is discussing with Oman a more permanent Strait of Hormuz toll system, even as the Strait remains effectively constrained—keeping global gas and shipping pricing tense. Argentina Deregulation Push: Argentina’s lower house approved “Ley Hojarasca,” aiming to repeal 70+ obsolete rules, a move the Milei government is positioning as pro-growth. Panama Canal Leadership: Panama appointed its first woman to lead the interoceanic waterway, a milestone for regional logistics. Weather Watch: Forecasts point to a slightly quieter Atlantic hurricane season under strengthening El Niño, but warn one major storm can still dominate risk.

Cuba Pressure Escalates: The U.S. indicted former President Raúl Castro on murder and conspiracy charges tied to the 1996 downing of planes used by the anti-Castro exile group Brothers to the Rescue, as Washington ratchets up its campaign against Havana while Cuba calls it a “political maneuver.” Caribbean Security Posture: The USS Nimitz strike group arrived in the Caribbean amid the same U.S.-Cuba tensions, signaling a harder line even as Trump insists it’s not an escalation. Energy Shock Hits Livelihoods: In Sri Lanka, Middle East-driven energy costs are pushing tea workers off cooking gas and onto firewood, raising fears for a $1.5B industry that employs millions. Market Mood Turns Volatile: Retail traders are leaning into short-term swings as Trump-era Iran pressure and policy pauses fuel new trading slang like “TACO” and “FOMO.” Data-Center Cooling, Latam Reach: Güntner launched a dedicated Data Center Solutions unit, citing growing AI demand and already-installed cooling capacity across South America.

Cuba Escalation: The U.S. Justice Department indicted 94-year-old Raúl Castro and five others over the 1996 shootdown of civilian planes operated by Brothers to the Rescue, accusing him of ordering the attack that killed four people—an escalation that comes as Washington tightens pressure on Havana amid Cuba’s fuel crunch and rolling blackouts. U.S.-Cuba Pressure Campaign: Secretary of State Marco Rubio pushed a “new path” message to Cubans in a video ahead of the indictment, while U.S. officials framed the case as accountability for deaths of Americans. Energy Shock Context: The broader backdrop is a worsening energy squeeze tied to U.S. actions in the region, with the UN warning that Middle East-linked energy disruptions are dragging global growth and lifting inflation. Regional Energy Moves: In Uruguay, QatarEnergy bought stakes from Shell in offshore blocks, while Colombia approved the exploratory phase for Ecopetrol’s Nereidas geothermal project. Caribbean Risk Watch: Curaçao’s central bank warned the islands remain too dependent on tourism and real estate, leaving them exposed to energy-price shocks and geopolitical stress.

Cuba’s energy squeeze turns political: Havana is living with up to 20 hours of blackouts a day as a four-month U.S. oil blockade drains fuel for crumbling power stations, while protests and trash pile up and officials trade warnings over alleged drone threats. U.S.-Cuba pressure escalates: The U.S. is also moving toward a symbolic legal escalation, with reporting that prosecutors may seek charges tied to the 1996 “Brothers to the Rescue” shootdown—an indictment that could further harden tensions. Bolivia unrest hits infrastructure: In La Paz, protests and blockades have effectively besieged the capital, cutting hospital oxygen access and disrupting markets, with demands ranging from wages to gasoline supply. Guyana governance under spotlight: ABCEU diplomats are urging Guyana to reconvene Parliament after nearly 100 days, as oil-fueled growth collides with calls for oversight. Energy markets watchlist: The IEA says EVs are approaching 30% of new vehicle sales in 2026, even as the Middle East energy shock keeps oil and power costs in focus. Latin America project pipeline: Vallourec won major ExxonMobil Guyana line-pipe orders and is investing in Brazil coatings capacity.

G7 Finance Diplomacy: G7 ministers met in Paris and agreed the world’s trade imbalances are “not sustainable,” urging a quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and continued pressure on Russia—yet they offered few concrete steps beyond shared language. Cuba Under Pressure: Washington’s latest sanctions and fuel blockade keep tightening the screws; Cuba’s Díaz-Canel called it “collective punishment” and “genocide,” while the U.S. also formally charged Alex Saab in a CLAP/PDVSA-linked laundering case. Bolivia Crisis: Bolivia ruled out a state of emergency as protests and blockades deepen around La Paz, with violence and hospital disruptions escalating. Energy Supply Reality Check: A new global energy balance highlights a widening gap between top oil/gas producers and the biggest reserve holders—reshaping who can actually scale output. Caribbean Gas Deal: Trinidad and Tobago’s NGC finalized a gas sales contract with Methanol Holdings, locking in downstream stability for methanol operations. Geothermal Push: Antigua and Barbuda says it’s in talks with St. Kitts and Nevis and the EU to buy geothermal power via a subsea cable to cut fossil dependence.

Venezuela crackdown: Alex Saab, a longtime Nicolás Maduro ally, appeared in a Miami federal court after being deported/extradited to the U.S., facing a money-laundering charge tied to alleged bribery and fake import schemes for the CLAP food program. Oil spill dispute: Venezuela demanded compensation from Trinidad and Tobago over a Heritage Petroleum spill detected May 1, warning it could affect 1,625 sq km and harm fishermen in the Gulf of Paria. Cuba under pressure: A Mexico-Uruguay humanitarian ship reached Havana with hygiene items and 1,700 tonnes of food after Cuba said it has run out of fuel, while President Díaz-Canel warned any U.S. attack would mean a “bloodbath.” Regional shipping risk: CARICOM registered concern over Middle East hostilities and Strait of Hormuz disruption, stressing knock-on effects for energy, supply chains, and small import-dependent states. Energy policy ripple: Australia’s gas reservation plan is drawing fire from Santos, with warnings it could trigger an “Argentina-style” collapse by choking investment.

Argentina Investment Push: Argentina’s RIGI incentive regime cleared another milestone, topping $27B in approved commitments after the government added two mining projects—$891M for a San Jorge copper project in Mendoza and $1.241B for the Cauchari-Olaroz lithium expansion in Jujuy—bringing the program to 16 approved projects with more in review. Venezuela-Guyana Legal Standoff: Venezuela says it will ignore any World Court ruling in the Essequibo border dispute, warning the process will only harden positions. Cuba Energy Crisis Escalates: A Mexico- and Uruguay-backed humanitarian ship reached Havana with food and hygiene supplies as Cuba faces fuel shortages and blackouts, while U.S.-Cuba tensions spike after reports of alleged drone capabilities. Hormuz Pressure on Oil Flows: Strait of Hormuz traffic ticked up after a wartime low, but the broader risk remains as governments look for alternative supply routes. Climate Governance Upgrade: The Dominican Republic approved a National Climate Transparency System to track emissions and adaptation, aiming to unlock more climate finance.

Oil Markets: Brent jumped 2.9% to $104.21 as the Iran war drags on and Hormuz disruption keeps tankers stuck, feeding fresh inflation worries even as Wall Street edges toward new highs. U.S.-Cuba Tensions: Cuba’s foreign minister rejected an Axios claim that Havana discussed drone attacks, calling it a “fraudulent case” tied to Washington’s sanctions and possible aggression. Regional Geopolitics: G7 finance chiefs met in Paris to coordinate amid Middle East shock, trade feuds, and pressure to reduce reliance on China-linked rare earths. Energy Security Shock: The UAE reported a drone strike near its only nuclear plant, underscoring how quickly escalation risk can hit critical infrastructure. LatAm Tech & Finance: Oobit expanded into Colombia as stablecoin payments surge across the region, while China’s influence in Latin America is shifting toward more “results-first” partnerships. Industry Watch: Lithium Americas warned tariffs could add up to $120M to Nevada’s Thacker Pass costs.

Oil Shock Watch: Oil prices climbed Monday as the Iran war drags on and Trump said the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is on “life support,” keeping pressure on global supply routes tied to Hormuz. Cuba Energy Collapse: Cuba confirmed it has “absolutely no fuel oil” and “absolutely no diesel,” with Havana blackouts running 20–22 hours daily and power plants idle—an emergency that’s now driving new survival guidance and heightened U.S.-Cuba tensions. Cuba Security Posture: A report says Cuba has stockpiled hundreds of drones and is building a list of U.S. targets, while the CIA director’s rare visit underscores how energy desperation is colliding with geopolitics. Venezuela Political Fallout: Venezuela deported Alex Saab to the U.S., reframing him as a “Colombian citizen” to sidestep extradition limits—another sign of how fragile Maduro’s coalition remains. Bolivia Unrest: Bolivia deployed thousands of troops to reopen La Paz supply lines amid a deepening economic crisis, with clashes and detainees reported. Regional Finance: CIBC Caribbean said it arranged over $3.5B in Caribbean financing deals in 2025, led by Suriname’s state oil funding and other utility and infrastructure mandates.

Cuba’s energy squeeze: Cuba says it has run out of fuel oil and diesel as the U.S. keeps blocking most oil shipments, triggering blackouts, fuel shortages, and fresh protests in Havana. Venezuela pressure campaign: Venezuela deported Alex Saab—Maduro’s longtime ally—back to the U.S. for criminal proceedings, a sharp reversal after his earlier Biden-era pardon. Bolivia unrest: Bolivia detained 57 demonstrators during anti-government protests tied to an economic crisis, with police using tear gas and an operation to clear roadblocks aimed at restoring hospital supplies. Oil-market backdrop: Oil prices are rising as the Iran war drags on and Strait of Hormuz disruptions keep supply risks elevated, feeding broader inflation pressure across the region. Energy policy ripple: Trinidad and Tobago is still working through compensation from the Gulfstream oil spill, with $61M received so far—another reminder that energy shocks land fast, and recovery takes longer.

Oil Shock Watch: Brent jumped 2.9% to $104.21 after Trump said the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is on “life support,” raising fears the Strait of Hormuz disruption could last longer and keep inflation pressure on. Diplomacy Pressure: Trump heads to China to push Xi Jinping to lean on Iran, with China still a major buyer of sanctioned Iranian crude. Argentina Energy Push: YPF is seeking inclusion in Argentina’s RIGI incentives for a US$25-billion, 15-year Vaca Muerta expansion targeting 240,000 bpd by 2032—an export-focused bet on faster output. Cuba Energy Crisis: Cuba’s fuel crunch is still driving protests and grid instability, while the U.S. escalates pressure with moves that include a possible Raúl Castro indictment. Regional Energy Links: CARICOM says it’s expanding South-South ties to support trade, security, and sustainable energy/transport corridors. What’s Missing: No major new Latin America oil-and-gas deal updates beyond YPF and the Cuba/YPF-linked pressure cycle.

Oil Market Shock: Oil prices climbed Monday as the Iran war drags on and Trump said the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is on “life support,” keeping pressure on global supply routes tied to the Strait of Hormuz. Cuba Energy Crisis: Cuba’s fuel crunch is worsening, with reports of grid collapse and protests as the U.S. signals a possible shift in engagement after CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s Havana trip. Venezuela Energy & Industry: A PDVSA-linked gas platform explosion on Lake Maracaibo injured six workers, while PDVSA says production won’t be affected; separately, Venezuela and the World Bank resumed talks after a seven-year pause to map technical cooperation. Geopolitics & Resources: The U.S. is turning toward Guyana’s bauxite and other resources as it deepens Latin America’s energy-minerals push amid the global energy crisis. BRICS Split: BRICS foreign ministers met in India without consensus, with Iran and the UAE at odds as energy-market risks stay front and center.

Cuba Energy Crisis Escalates: Cuba says it has run out of oil as blackouts and fuel shortages spark protests in Havana, with the energy minister warning the country has “absolutely no fuel oil” and “absolutely no diesel,” after a U.S. oil blockade tightened pressure. Venezuela Powering Recovery—With Risks: Venezuela’s central bank chief Luis Pérez projects 8% growth in 2026 alongside debt restructuring aimed at rejoining the IMF and World Bank, while a separate Reuters report flags a fire at a Lake Maracaibo gas facility injuring at least six workers. USMCA Deadline Looms: The clock is ticking toward the July 1, 2026 USMCA joint review, with talks already underway on rules for key industrial goods and critical minerals. Brazil Oil Watch: Petrobras is nearing the Morpho reservoir after clearing drilling issues, keeping investor attention on deepwater progress in the Foz do Amazonas basin. Caribbean Renewables Push: Curaçao and the Netherlands highlighted battery storage progress tied to a goal of 70% renewable power, as Dutch support deepens.

Cuba’s Fuel Collapse: Cuba’s energy minister says the island has “absolutely no” oil and diesel left, with blackouts hitting 20–22 hours a day and protests erupting in Havana as the U.S. blockade tightens. U.S.-Cuba Diplomacy: The U.S. offered $100 million in humanitarian aid, and Cuba accepted it—routing it via the Catholic Church—while insisting the real fix is ending the blockade. Geopolitics & Oil Prices: Oil rose as Iran war risks drag on, keeping pressure on global supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz. U.S.-China Trade Pivot: Trump tells Xi he made “fantastic trade deals,” including talk of China buying U.S. oil and soybeans, while the summit also centers on Middle East and Taiwan tensions. Regional Energy Governance: Venezuela’s power ministry met U.S. officials on stabilizing the national grid, citing sanctions and equipment limits. Bolivia Unrest: Mining-led protests intensify in La Paz amid a worsening economic crisis.