AGP Executive Report

Venezuela Power Recovery: Delcy Rodríguez says Venezuela has signed deals with Russia’s INSA and General Electric to bring 7,400 MW back into the national grid over four years, including hydro work at Tocoma and Macagua. Venezuela Earthquake Aftermath: Volunteers and rescue workers described how they rushed into La Guaira’s rubble after decades of state failures left many to fend for themselves as the death toll nears 5,100. Mexico-Guatemala Quake: A magnitude 7.3 earthquake hit the southern Pacific near the border, triggering tsunami warnings and multiple aftershocks, with no immediate major damage reported. Brazil-US Tariffs and Biofuels: The U.S. imposed 25% retaliatory tariffs on Brazilian goods under Section 301, with ethanol included; exemptions cover beef and several other items, drawing mixed reactions from industry groups. Energy Security via Shipping Routes: With the Strait of Hormuz disrupted again, Gulf states and firms are accelerating alternatives like new pipelines and ports to reduce reliance on a single chokepoint. Oil Supply Link to Latin America: Japan received its first Mexican crude delivery in three years, underscoring how Latin American barrels are being used to manage global supply shocks. Commodities Watch: Brazilian soybean export prices jumped to a 2.5-year high on firmer CBOT futures and steady overseas demand.

Energy Security Shock: The US-Iran standoff is tightening the Strait of Hormuz again, with shipping transits falling to just three commodity vessels on Thursday and tankers/LNG traffic largely absent—fresh pressure on oil and gas prices. IMF Warning: The IMF says global oil buffers that softened past shocks are now running low, leaving economies more exposed if disruptions persist. Regional Power & Renewables: Mexico is weighing a $4.6bn financing vehicle for renewable energy and storage, while Argentina’s electricity demand reportedly dipped during its World Cup semifinal—an early reminder of how grid load can swing with major events. Grid Tech & Electrification: Iberdrola says it has deployed AI across 450+ operational projects, and Huawei Digital Power launched FusionSolar 9.0 to help stabilize grids as renewables scale. Aviation Electrification: Hitachi Energy and Eve Air Mobility signed an MoU to build charging and grid integration for eVTOL vertiports. Oil & Policy: BlackRock warned Mexico’s investment outlook is clouded by USMCA uncertainty. Cuba Sanctions: New US sanctions hit Cuba’s tourism and state firms, deepening the island’s energy and humanitarian strain.

Electricity Reliability in the Caribbean: St. Lucia’s LUCELEC launched a post-incident review after a third islandwide outage this year, restoring power within about 1 hour 49 minutes and pointing to earlier causes like protection-system trips and breaker interference. Oil Market Risk & Middle East Tensions: With US-Iran strikes and a Strait of Hormuz standoff intensifying, oil prices held near $80 and supply fears are again driving inflation concerns across markets. Strategic Petroleum Reserves: India and South Africa moved to expand strategic oil buffers, underscoring how quickly energy security planning is shifting from “exception” to “routine.” Colombia Defense Procurement: Colombia’s air force is reportedly moving to fast-track talks to buy two Brazilian Embraer C-390 transports to replace aging C-130s, with integration and hardware restrictions still in play. Venezuela Offshore Gas Drilling: Shell is tendering drilling services for Venezuela’s Dragon offshore gas field, targeting activity in 2027. Argentina Energy-Adjacent Politics: Argentina’s Milei said he’ll skip the World Cup final trip and keep watching from Olivos, wearing a YPF jacket as a good-luck ritual—an unusual reminder of how state energy brands keep showing up in public life.

US-Brazil Trade Shock: The U.S. will impose a 25% tariff on most Brazilian imports starting July 22 under a Section 301 probe, while carving out exemptions for items like coffee, beef, oranges/juice, some oil-and-gas energy products, and aerospace parts—raising new uncertainty for Brazil ahead of October elections. Distributed Solar in Brazil: Brazil’s solar micro- and mini-generation fleet hit an average 72% performance ratio, with forecasting and oversizing adjustments highlighted by the ONS to better manage distributed output. Panama Grid Planning: Panama announced two 2027 power tenders with meaningful battery energy storage participation, aiming to match demand growth and the future generation mix. Cuba Energy Strain: Cuba reported another major blackout, deepening the island’s energy crisis amid ongoing fuel constraints. Venezuela Earthquake Fallout: Venezuela’s quake response continues to draw scrutiny as humanitarian needs and economic recovery pressures mount. Energy-Adjacent Spotlight: Shell is moving ahead with plans tied to offshore gas activity in Venezuela, while regional LNG and storage developments keep expanding the investment pipeline.

Cuba Power Crisis Deepens: Cuba’s national grid collapsed again for the third time in nine days, leaving nearly all residents in the dark as fuel shortages and aging infrastructure trigger cascading failures; authorities began rebuilding via isolated “micro-islands” to restore critical services. US Sanctions Hit Cuba’s Tourism: The U.S. Treasury added Cuba’s Ministry of Tourism and related entities to its sanctions list, tightening pressure on an already strained sector facing outages, fuel shortages, and weaker visitor flows. Regional Energy Risk From Iran Conflict: The U.S. reimposed a naval blockade and escalated strikes as threats around the Strait of Hormuz return, raising concerns for global energy exports and prices. Heat Stress for Brazil’s Grid: A climate study projects Brazil could see up to 127 days of extreme heat per year by 2075, with major implications for energy, infrastructure, and logistics continuity. Energy Supply Chain Watch: Port of Los Angeles hit a record June over 1 million TEUs, with importers shifting shipping patterns amid tariffs, fuel costs, and uncertainty.

Venezuela Power Crisis: Cuba’s grid is also in trouble—Havana and the rest of the island are cycling through blackouts, with UNE saying power is being restored after a third nationwide outage in under 10 days, underscoring how fuel shortages and grid fragility keep biting. Venezuela Oil & Policy: Separate coverage points to Venezuela’s oil sector facing a services bottleneck and ongoing reforms that aim to loosen the monopoly and draw private investment, as quakes worsen the country’s broader economic strain. Regional Energy Risk from Hormuz: Multiple reports tie higher fuel and power costs across the region to renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruption fears, with analysts warning the ripple effects go beyond oil prices. Brazil Power & Renewables Buildout: Brazil’s energy transition continues with new storage and grid-hardening momentum, including projects reaching operations and new battery investments—though the broader system still faces integration challenges. Caribbean Energy Costs: Caribbean governments are urged to balance fuel subsidies amid the same Middle East-driven supply risk, as affordability pressures rise.

Biofuels & Shipping: Bunker One completed Latin America’s first bioethanol bunkering for a deep-sea container vessel at Brazil’s Port of Santos, delivering 500,000 liters of anhydrous ethanol to CMA CGM’s tri-fuel ship. LNG & Infrastructure: Mexico’s Energia Costa Azul hit its first LNG export milestone after the Pacific Success loaded a fully loaded cargo; however, feedgas and liquefaction activity showed operational disruptions around early July. Ethanol Policy: Brazil temporarily raised the mandatory gasoline ethanol blend to 32% from 30%, with sugar prices reacting to the higher blend. SAF Scale-Up: Brazil’s Energis8 CEO says the firm targets annual SAF output of 1 billion liters starting in 2031, with $1.3B capex and a tolling model using ethanol. Power Crisis: Cuba’s national grid collapsed again for a third time in nine days as the oil blockade deepens the island’s energy shortage. Oil Market Shock: Strait of Hormuz traffic fell to 11 ships on July 12 amid US-Iran attacks, while prompt Middle East crude prices rebounded on shipping risk. Regional Finance: Canada pledged $125M in loan financing for Brazil energy projects, including sustainable jet fuel/diesel production and electricity grid upgrades. Arbitration: A Colombian gas distributor filed an ICSID claim against Peru over a new tariff regime.

Strait of Hormuz Tensions: Brazil’s Lula blasted Trump’s proposed 20% fee on commercial vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz as “piracy,” after the US said it would reinstate a blockade on Iran and take responsibility for securing the waterway. Mexico–US Gas Dependence: A Texas-focused dispatch warns Mexico’s power and industry increasingly rely on Texas natural gas, and that US policy shifts tied to the USMCA renegotiation approach could disrupt the relationship. Argentina Capital Markets: YPF’s power unit filed for a US IPO, signaling fresh momentum for Argentine listings in New York. Biofuels for Shipping: Brazil completed its first bioethanol bunkering for a container ship at Santos, a step toward lower-carbon maritime fuel supply chains. Ethanol Debate in India: BIEPA pushed back on social media claims about E20, citing government and industry data supporting engine safety and energy-security gains. Offshore Wind Finance: Cadeler secured a €247m EIFO-backed green term loan to build an offshore wind installation vessel, reinforcing offshore wind capacity growth. Suriname Oil Services: Halliburton won integrated well construction work for TotalEnergies’ GranMorgu deepwater project offshore Suriname. Venezuela Earthquake Fallout: Public anger grows over the government’s quake response as the death toll rises and residents accuse officials of recklessness.

Venezuela Earthquake Response: Caritas Venezuela says more than 14,000 tonnes of humanitarian aid have reached quake survivors, with 9,000 tonnes distributed since the twin 24 June earthquakes that killed over 4,000 and left 18,000 homeless, as churches and international teams push sanitation, water, nutrition and shelter. Argentina Power IPO: YPF Electric Energy filed for a U.S. IPO, reporting a 45.8% quarterly revenue jump and a 3,764 MW portfolio across thermal and renewables, with wind/solar contributing 19% of electricity supplied. Oil-Shipping Shock Risk: Fresh U.S.-Iran strikes and Trump’s talk of a 20% toll for safe Strait of Hormuz transit sent crude higher and raised fears of renewed disruption for Latin America-linked supply chains. Trucking Market Turn: Carriers are getting more pricing power as capacity tightens amid enforcement on foreign-born drivers, tariffs on equipment, and CUSMA uncertainty—rates are up sharply and 2027 contract/spot forecasts look higher. Caribbean Grid Strain: Reports highlight Cuba’s worsening energy crisis amid blackouts, underscoring how power reliability remains a regional risk. Mexico Energy Investment Watch: A legal explainer flags how Mexico’s 2026 judicial election rule changes could affect foreign investment treaty planning for energy projects.

Venezuela Earthquake Relief: A Trinidad and Tobago Muslim group says it delivered US$20,000 in aid to quake-displaced families in Caracas and La Guaira, describing conditions as chaotic and rescue efforts slowed by heavy equipment needs. Venezuela Energy Policy: Venezuela’s new Hydrocarbons Law is relaxing the oil sector and breaking up PDVSA’s monopoly, while PDVSA has pledged fuel for reconstruction work in affected areas. Cuba Power Crisis: Cuba faces another islandwide blackout, deepening an already worsening energy grid situation. Oil Market Shock: Renewed US-Iran fighting has pushed oil higher and revived Strait of Hormuz supply fears, with analysts warning of inflation risk. Regional Power Grid Stress: Brazil reports electrical challenges tied to renewable overproduction, with 4,021 MW disconnected in 2025 and million-dollar losses. Energy Infrastructure in Mexico: TotalEnergies’ Energia Costa Azul LNG terminal in Mexico has shipped its first LNG cargo to Asia, signaling new gas export momentum. Renewables & Storage in Argentina: Argentina awards 700.5 MW of battery storage across critical grid nodes, boosting grid resilience. Policy Watch: Colombia’s government plans an anti-fracking bill, set for July 20.

Venezuela Energy & Politics: A New York Times report says U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is effectively running Venezuela from Washington, controlling finances, government and natural resources—an allegation that adds pressure as Venezuela also moves to liberalize its oil sector and attract private investment. Oil Market & Shipping: Strait of Hormuz traffic stayed subdued while negotiations continued, but Trump said the ceasefire was over, keeping crude and bunker-sensitive markets jumpy; container rates to the U.S. rose while tanker rates were steadier. Caribbean Power Resilience: Cuba suffered a second nationwide blackout in a week, deepening an already fragile energy grid. Regional Energy Policy: Colombia’s government is set to introduce an anti-fracking bill on July 20, signaling a major shift in how the country approaches oil and gas development. Brazil Offshore & LNG: TotalEnergies launched its Energia Costa Azul LNG export terminal offshore Mexico, with the first LNG cargo heading to South Korea—another step in Mexico’s LNG buildout. Venezuela Earthquake Fallout: After twin quakes, Venezuela’s push for debt relief and frozen-asset releases is intensifying, with U.S. military involvement at key infrastructure sites drawing criticism.

Venezuela Oil Liberalization: Acting President Delcy Rodríguez signed new hydrocarbon regulations that loosen PDVSA’s grip and expand room for private investment as output nears 1.2 million bpd, signaling a major shift away from the state-controlled model. Cuba Power Crisis: Cuba suffered another islandwide blackout for the second time in a week, with officials citing grid failures and fuel shortages that are worsening an already fragile SEN system. Methane Monitoring Push: A new look at global methane shows emissions from fossil operations aren’t trending down despite surveillance and mitigation efforts, raising pressure for faster, enforceable methane controls. Amazon Deforestation Trend: Brazil’s deforestation has fallen sharply under Lula, but the move is under fire from environmentalists as oil exploration expands near the Amazon. Caribbean Rural Solar: Haiti is advancing a solar electrification program for schools, health centers, and police sub-stations in underserved communes, aiming to cut energy gaps with autonomous PV systems. Oil Supply Watch (US-Iraq): US crude imports from Iraq hit zero for a second straight week, while Venezuela remains a key supplier to the US market. Energy Market Risk: Eni warns oil could break out of its $80–$100 band if Middle East conflict persists, lifting inflation risks and complicating demand.

Caribbean Power Crisis: Cuba suffered another islandwide blackout for the second time in a week, with the government blaming an “energy blockade” while critics point to long-neglected grid and generation maintenance. Regional Affordability Push: CARICOM leaders and private-sector partners agreed measures to cut household cost pressures, including lowering import and transport costs and advancing a regional ferry framework. Diesel Supply Shock: Russia’s diesel export ban is tightening global fuel supplies and lifting diesel prices, with knock-on inflation risks for industries and freight. Oil Price Risk Watch: Eni’s CEO warned prolonged Iran conflict could push oil toward $100 by early 2027, especially if strategic reserves keep getting drained. Data Centers vs. Power Demand: Trinidad and Tobago signed deals with U.S. firms to develop large data centers, raising concerns about electricity use and environmental impacts. Colombia Energy Politics: Colombia’s president-elect is expected to be a potential tailwind for the oil sector as the new administration prepares policy shifts.

Cuba Power Crisis: Cuba suffered a second nationwide blackout in five days as fuel shortages deepen under the US energy blockade, with emergency protocols prioritizing hospitals and other critical services. Offshore Oil Procurement: Petrobras postponed the deadline for bids on a new Buzios pre-salt FPSO tender by six months, extending contractor competition for the P-91 floater. Oil Price Pressure for LAC: ECLAC warned that the US-Iran conflict is likely to keep oil prices higher in 2026, raising costs for oil-importing Latin American and Caribbean economies. Global Fuel Shock: Russia’s full diesel export ban tightened global supply and pushed diesel prices higher, with knock-on effects for heavy transport and industrial activity. Caribbean Affordability Push: CARICOM and private-sector groups agreed measures to improve affordability, including cutting intra-regional trade barriers and logistics costs, and addressing the impact of the IMO net-zero framework on small island states. Lithium Race in Bolivia: A closer look at Salar de Uyuni highlights the world-scale lithium reserves beneath the salt flat and the growing push to develop them. Venezuela Oil Sector Shake-up: Venezuela’s new Hydrocarbons Law relaxes rules and breaks up the oil monopoly, reshaping how the sector operates. Antitrust Watch (EU, offshore services): The European Parliament is set to investigate the Saipem-Subsea 7 merger, focusing on competition for offshore engineering capacity and vessels. Renewables & Grid Buildout (Colombia): Colombia commissioned a 360 MW solar park, adding to the country’s expanding clean-power pipeline.

Oil & Gas Markets: Renewed U.S.-Iran fighting and Strait of Hormuz disruptions pushed crude higher, lifting gasoline prices in the U.S. and adding volatility to regional energy costs. Power Reliability in the Caribbean: Cuba suffered another islandwide blackout this week as its grid deteriorates and fuel shortages deepen under the U.S. energy blockade. LNG Trade: Mexico’s Energia Costa Azul shipped its first LNG cargo to South Korea, signaling faster gas export momentum from North America’s Pacific coast. Venezuela Energy Policy: Caracas liberalized its oil sector via new hydrocarbons regulations, sidelining PDVSA’s monopoly and reshaping how production and investment may be structured. Regional Macroeconomics: ECLAC warned that higher oil and fertilizer prices tied to Middle East conflict could worsen inflation and trade balances across Central America and the Dominican Republic. Renewables & Storage Finance: Mexico is preparing more private-sector bids for renewable energy and storage projects with CFE, following interest sparked by its first tender. Indigenous Rights vs “Green” Infrastructure: Brazil’s A’uwẽ-Xavante leaders are taking their case to the UN, challenging a “green” railway plan that they say advances without free, prior, and informed consent. Brazil Environment: Brazil reported deforestation hitting new lows in the Amazon, reinforcing the country’s latest conservation narrative.

Cuba Energy Crisis: Cuba’s grid suffered another major collapse, with a new record power deficit as demand far outstripped available generation, deepening nationwide blackouts and highlighting the strain of the US energy blockade. Hormuz Shock to Trade: With Trump declaring the Iran ceasefire “over” after renewed attacks, the Strait of Hormuz is again a flashpoint, raising fresh risks for global shipping and oil and gas flows. Petrobras Africa Push: Petrobras completed its 75% acquisition of offshore Block 3 in São Tomé and Príncipe, expanding exploration in Africa alongside its Brazil portfolio. Caribbean Power Costs: CARICOM leaders, including St. Lucia’s Philip J. Pierre, urged faster regional action on energy and cost-of-living pressures, pushing beyond discussion toward shared implementation. Renewables & Storage Moves: Colombia brought a 360 MW solar park into commercial operation, while Argentina awarded 700.5 MW of battery storage across grid nodes—both signaling grid modernization momentum. Fuel Policy Watch: India’s petroleum ministry defended ethanol blending, warning that rolling back to E10 could jeopardize roughly ₹1 lakh crore per year in ethanol investments. Lithium & Batteries Demand: A new outlook flags steep growth in India’s lithium-ion battery demand through 2035, but stresses supply-chain vulnerability from limited domestic lithium. Brazil Grid Strain: Brazil’s grid operator expects large-scale solar and wind curtailment by 2030, underscoring the need for storage and dispatch flexibility.