AGP Executive Report

Bolivia Energy-Security & Social Stability: Bolivia’s legislature passed a law letting President Rodrigo Paz deploy the military to clear roadblocks, after weeks of anti-government protests that have choked cities with food and medicine shortages. Cuba Humanitarian Supply: Cuba received 1,700 tons of basic goods from Mexico and Belize, underscoring how regional partners are trying to cushion the island’s energy and economic crunch. Venezuela–Guyana Legal Fight: Venezuela said it has “well-founded doubts” about the ICJ process over Essequibo after Guyana signaled it expects the 1899 award to be upheld, reiterating it won’t recognize any ICJ ruling. Aviation Fuel Pressure: IATA cut its 2026 airline profit outlook, warning of a fuel-cost shock tied to the Iran war and higher jet fuel prices—an issue that will ripple into Latin America’s carriers and travel demand. Grid & Market Stress (Heat): A report on extreme heat and wet-bulb survivability highlights rising climate risk that can strain power systems and public health across the region. Nuclear Cooperation: Argentina hosted a U.S.-led SMR workshop, signaling continued interest in next-gen nuclear services and investment.

Argentina Trade Openness: Argentina filed a letter of intent to join the CPTPP, aiming to link up with the UK for the first time since 1982, though accession could take 2–5 years and isn’t guaranteed. Peru Security Politics: Peruvians vote again for president amid rising crime, with a tight race between Keiko Fujimori and Roberto Sánchez and a large undecided bloc. Gulf Energy Risk: The U.S. says it shot down Iranian drones threatening the Strait of Hormuz as Iran and regional allies trade missile and drone strikes, keeping a key oil chokepoint under pressure. Airline Fuel Shock: Airlines meeting in Rio face margin strain from Iran-war fuel volatility plus aircraft delivery delays, pushing carriers toward higher fares and tighter capacity. Critical Minerals Watch: A new market read flags copper as likely to flip into a structural deficit by 2026, raising cost and project-timing pressure for producers and portfolio risk for investors. India–Venezuela Energy Push: India and Venezuela keep deepening long-term energy ties as crude flows shift, with officials signaling technical teams and investment interest. Peru Mining Dealmaking: India eyes critical minerals in Peru at WMC 2026, positioning the event as a bridge for investment and supply-chain access.

Power Reliability in the Caribbean: Jamaica restored service after a rare island-wide blackout, with officials calling the situation “unacceptable” and pointing to grid resilience concerns as hurricane season nears. Energy Transition & Critical Minerals: Peru issued a Supreme Decree naming uranium and lithium as “national pillars,” signaling a regulatory shift for the Macusani Plateau and boosting its role in clean-energy tech supply chains. Storm Watch: Mexico’s meteorological agencies are tracking Tropical Storm Amanda, with an 80% chance of cyclone development and potential impacts even if it stays offshore. Grid & Climate Risk: Colombia is bracing for El Niño, with 80% likelihood for the event to start this month and run into early 2027, raising stakes for water, food, and energy production. Oil & Gas Diplomacy: India and Venezuela are deepening energy cooperation as crude imports rise, with talks focused on long-term supply and investment beyond spot cargoes. Brazil Corporate Restructuring: Raízen secured creditor backing for a major out-of-court debt restructuring tied to its sugar, ethanol, and fuel business. Mexico Security for World Cup: Mexico City is increasing police presence around the Zócalo Fan Fest as protests and unrest continue. Bolivia Protests: Police and protesters clashed in Santa Cruz over road blockades tied to calls for President Rodrigo Paz’s resignation, worsening shortages. Sustainability in Sports Venues: FIFA World Cup stadiums advanced green building certifications, with LEED-certified venues adding solar and cutting water and single-use plastics.

Jamaica Grid Shock: Jamaica suffered an island-wide blackout Friday after a system failure, with the Jamaica Public Service (JPS) working to restore power in phases; officials gave no cause or full timeline yet. Venezuela–India Energy Push: Acting President Delcy Rodríguez toured India’s Jamnagar refinery and met leaders in New Delhi and Mumbai to deepen hydrocarbons cooperation as India signals readiness to expand its presence in Venezuela’s reformed oil and gas sector. Colombia–Cuba Power Relief: Colombia shipped about 100 tons of humanitarian aid to Cuba from Cartagena, including solar panels and electrical materials aimed at supporting Cuba’s energy grid amid ongoing crisis conditions. Gulf Tensions, Energy Risk: Fresh US-Iran flare-ups included strikes and missile exchanges involving Kuwait and Bahrain, raising renewed concerns for Strait of Hormuz stability and regional energy flows. Peru Copper Output Up: Peru’s copper production rose 15% year-on-year in early 2026 as key mines reached steady state, strengthening supply outlook for the energy-transition and data-center demand cycle. Guyana Grid Modernization: InterEnergy outlined a roadmap to modernize Guyana’s GPL electricity grid through 2030, targeting a more reliable, resilient, digitally managed network. Colombia Coal Mine Fatality: Seven workers died in a coal mine explosion in central Colombia, with authorities citing methane buildup and launching a formal investigation. India Flex-Fuel Update: India launched E85 fuel in Delhi for flex-fuel vehicles, with officials stressing it is not interchangeable with E20-compatible cars.

Venezuela–India Energy Push: Acting President Delcy Rodríguez toured India’s Jamnagar refinery and met Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri to review a long-term energy agenda, as New Delhi seeks more reliable crude supply amid West Asia disruptions. Oil Market Shockwatch: Oil prices eased after U.S.–Iran diplomatic signals, but the broader theme remains tight transportation-fuel availability tied to Hormuz-related risks. Cuba Fuel Crisis Fallout: Sunwing and WestJet indefinitely suspended Cuba operations, pointing to ongoing hardship tied to the island’s energy situation. Jamaica Offshore Oil Hope: Jamaica’s energy ministry flagged early results from offshore exploratory drilling near Morant Bay, with potential development timelines stretching into the 2030s. Power Sector Reform (Venezuela): Venezuela moved to open its electricity system to private investment, aiming to address chronic reliability issues. Energy Security & Climate Resilience: Hurricane-season readiness coverage stressed how storms can disrupt power, fuel delivery, and refineries—especially across the Gulf and Caribbean.

Venezuela–India Energy Push: Acting President Delcy Rodríguez met India’s oil leadership in New Delhi, with both sides stressing “perfect complementarity” across upstream and downstream hydrocarbons and signaling a technical team visit to explore new energy opportunities. Venezuela Power-Sector Reform: Caracas is moving to open its electricity system to private investment after years of instability, as energy ties with India broaden beyond oil. Colombia–US Political Friction: President Gustavo Petro attacked Donald Trump’s endorsement of a Colombia runoff candidate tied to narco-paramilitary networks, raising stakes for how Washington and Bogotá handle security and drug policy. Mexico–Mexico/US Energy Risk: A major fuel-theft explosion in Mexico underlines ongoing supply-chain and enforcement vulnerabilities around hydrocarbons. Maritime Energy Deal: SBM Offshore agreed to sell a 45% stake in the Chalchi FSO project to NYK, keeping 55% while the vessel supports long-term crude storage for the Trion field off Mexico. Argentina–UK Falklands Oil Clash: Argentina warned it could fully act over new Falklands oil drilling plans, escalating a sovereignty dispute that directly affects offshore energy development. US Trade Pressure: The US proposed forced-labor tariffs on 60 economies, a move that could ripple through regional energy-linked supply chains.

Venezuela–India Energy Push: Venezuela’s acting president Delcy Rodríguez met India’s PM Narendra Modi and top diplomats in New Delhi, with both sides flagging expanded cooperation in hydrocarbons, critical minerals, and renewables as India seeks steadier crude supplies amid Middle East-linked disruptions. OPEC Shock Watch: A report on the UAE’s OPEC exit frames it as a sign of widening fractures inside the cartel and raises the question of whether Venezuela could face similar pressure. Power Sector Reform: Venezuela is moving to open its power sector to private investment after years of blackouts, aiming to stabilize supply and attract capital. Project Finance for Clean Tech: RE Royalties said it will present at Canada’s climate investor conference, highlighting non-dilutive royalty financing for solar, wind, hydro, and battery storage across the Americas. Aviation Fuel Anxiety (North Atlantic): Air Canada told customers there’s no expected jet fuel shortage to disrupt summer routes to Europe, after earlier IEA-linked warnings about Strait of Hormuz risks. Oil & Gas Infrastructure (Mexico): SBM Offshore announced plans to divest part of its stake in the FSO Chalchi tied to Woodside’s Trion field, underscoring continued deepwater investment momentum.

Venezuela–India Energy Push: Acting President Delcy Rodríguez met India’s PM Narendra Modi in New Delhi, with talks expected to deepen oil and broader energy cooperation as India boosts Venezuelan crude purchases amid Middle East supply disruptions. Cuba Tourism Fallout: Spain’s Melia will shut 15 hotels in Cuba, citing geopolitical and economic pressures; the move lands as Cuba’s tourism and power situation worsens. AI’s Energy Strain: A UN University report warns data centers already rival major countries in electricity use and could double energy and water impacts as AI demand grows. Climate and Food Risks: Reuters reports El Niño-linked heat and low rains are disrupting crop planting across Asia, threatening food supplies and raising grain prices. US Tariff Pressure: The US proposed forced-labor tariffs affecting 54 partners, including India and Mexico, adding trade uncertainty that can spill into energy-linked supply chains. Energy Security Debate: An op-ed argues fossil-fuel phase-out is the missing link in climate and energy policy, framing energy security as reducing dependence—not just securing supplies.

El Niño Watch: The UN and WMO say El Niño has an 80% chance of forming between June and August, with a 90% chance before year-end—raising risks of heat, drought, flooding, and wider knock-on effects across the Americas. AI Energy & Water Pressure: A UN University report warns AI and data centers already rival major countries’ environmental footprints, with electricity use and water demand set to surge as AI expands. US Tariff Shock Hits the Region: The US proposes new forced-labor tariffs up to 12.5% on imports from dozens of economies, adding fresh trade uncertainty for Latin American exporters. Brazil Trade Snapshot: Brazil’s May trade surplus hit $7.8B, boosted by higher export prices (including oil, copper, beef, and fuels) even as oil volumes fell on export-tax rules. Venezuela Energy Moves: Acting President Delcy Rodríguez begins a high-level India visit focused on deepening oil ties, while Venezuela also signals a push to expand private participation in energy investment. Caribbean LNG Milestone: Carnival completes Latin America’s first cruise ship LNG bunkering operation, a sign of growing LNG use in regional shipping.

Venezuela–India Energy Pivot: Acting President Delcy Rodríguez is set to visit India (June 3–7) with energy cooperation front and center as India boosts Venezuelan crude purchases amid Strait of Hormuz disruption. US Trade Pressure: The Trump administration proposed new forced-labor tariffs on imports from 60 economies, including Mexico and Brazil, with rates of 10% or 12.5% depending on country coverage—another potential cost shock for regional supply chains. US–Iran Standoff: Marco Rubio told lawmakers the US will not trade sanctions relief for reopening the Strait of Hormuz unless Iran meets nuclear demands, keeping oil-route risk elevated. Venezuela Political Trajectory: Rubio also said Venezuela no longer poses the same US security threat as under Maduro, while stressing democratic conditions and political prisoners remain unresolved. Power Market Watch: Qatar’s World Cup preparations are in full swing, but the bigger takeaway for energy readers is how major events are already driving logistics and fuel demand planning across host regions.

Venezuela Energy Openness: Delcy Rodríguez said new contracts this week aim to boost oil output, framing Venezuela as an “open-door” energy partner for investment. Power Sector Liberalization: Venezuela moves to open its power sector to private investment, signaling a push to attract capital beyond state control. Colombia Election Fallout: President Gustavo Petro renewed claims of possible fraud, citing alleged software changes affecting voter rolls and vote-counting tables ahead of the June runoff. El Niño Risk: The WMO warned of an 80% chance El Niño forms between June-August and could last to November, with climate change likely intensifying heat, drought, and heavy rainfall impacts across the region. Oil & Gas Transition Clash (Colombia): Spain’s Termocandelaria Power sued Colombia for $198m over alleged nonpayment tied to diesel- and gas-fired plants, highlighting how investor protections can complicate fossil-fuel phase-down plans. Cuba Sanctions Pressure: Cuba defended GAESA against U.S. accusations, arguing the military-run conglomerate helps fund development amid an oil blockade and tighter sanctions. Brazil Terror Designations: The U.S. moves to designate Brazil’s PCC and Comando Vermelho as terrorist groups, raising compliance risks for companies operating in Brazil.

El Niño Watch: The UN’s weather agency says there’s an 80% chance El Niño forms June–August and near/above 90% odds it lasts to at least November, raising risks of drought, heavy rain, and heatwaves across the Americas. Mexico Protests & Energy Security: Mexico City police used tear gas on teachers trying to reach the Zócalo ahead of 2026 World Cup fan-zone construction, underscoring how major events can disrupt public order and local planning. Rural Health Access: Flying Samaritans warns rising costs and fewer volunteers may limit near-monthly medical trips to rural Baja California Sur, where chronic disease care gaps persist. Latin America Business Climate: TMF’s Global Business Complexity Index flags Mexico and Brazil as among the hardest places for foreign firms to comply, citing shifting rules and compliance burdens. Oil Market Shock Risk: Iran-related Hormuz disruption plans are pushing crude higher, keeping supply-route uncertainty front and center for regional energy costs.

Venezuela Oil Watch: Venezuela’s oil exports rose to about 1.25 million bpd in May, with more cargoes going to the U.S., India and Europe as production and shipments keep climbing under the interim Delcy Rodríguez government. Rare Earth Supply Chain: Solvay and Viridis signed a non-binding LOI to source rare earth feedstocks from Brazil for long-term processing into high-purity oxides used in EVs and renewables, with shipments targeted from 2028. Chile Power Procurement: Grenergy signed long-term hybrid power purchase agreements for Oasis de Atacama phases in Chile, adding solar-plus-storage contracting momentum. Mexico Grid Buildout: Mexico launched a fast-track permitting program for renewables and BESS, aiming to speed project approvals. Caribbean Energy Context: U.S.-linked oil and shipping volatility tied to Strait of Hormuz tensions pushed crude higher, a reminder of how quickly global shocks can hit regional energy costs. Venezuela Finance: A Venezuelan delegation met the IMF and World Bank to discuss technical support and efforts to recover funds for macro stability.

Colombia Runoff Stakes: Abelardo de la Espriella (“El Tigre”) and Iván Cepeda will face off June 21 after a tight first-round vote, setting up a clash between hardline security and leftist “comprehensive peace” priorities that could reshape Colombia’s energy and investment outlook. Ecuador-Colombia Trade Reset: Ecuador abolished a 100% tariff on Colombian goods starting June 1 after talks with de la Espriella, easing cross-border friction that had also affected regional commerce. Cuba Energy Pressure: The U.S. offered $100M in humanitarian aid to Cuba with distribution limited to faith-based and nonprofit groups, while reporting highlights worsening blackouts and household fuel shortages as Venezuelan oil deliveries remain constrained. Oil Market Volatility: With Iran conflict risks still in focus, global oil prices rose and LNG supply dynamics are shifting toward a potential glut, a swing that matters for power generation costs across Latin America. Brazil Offshore & Drilling Push: Petrobras-related activity and new offshore contracting signals continued investment interest, while a Brazil extended-reach drilling case underscores operators’ push for efficiency in mature basins. Rare Earths Industrial Race: USA Rare Earth plans to expand France operations to build out magnet-making capacity, feeding the broader critical-minerals push tied to energy transition supply chains.

Fuel Price Shock in Brazil: Brazil extended fuel price controls and emergency measures as global oil volatility stayed high, underscoring how Middle East-driven market swings keep feeding local inflation pressures. Venezuela’s Oil-Politics Crossroads: Venezuela’s interim leadership and opposition figures are again pushing for presidential elections, while U.S.-linked moves around sanctions and oil-sector talks keep the energy sector tied to geopolitics. Colombia Election and Energy Transition Uncertainty: Colombia heads toward a pivotal presidential vote with major stakes for fiscal policy, security in energy regions, and the direction of the energy transition. Coal’s Human Toll in Chile: A cross-border investigation traces coal from Colombia’s Indigenous Yukpa lands to Chile’s Huasco power plants, linking the energy model to pollution, health harm, and rights violations. Clean Power Build-Out in the Region: Chile’s ContourGlobal inaugurated a hybrid plant with solar plus battery storage, while Colombia awarded 1.8 GW of renewables in an auction—both pointing to continued investment momentum despite macro headwinds. Grid Reliability Tech: EOLOGIX-PING launched satellite-enabled lightning monitoring for remote wind farms, aiming to improve turbine-level maintenance planning where cellular coverage is unreliable. Electric Mobility Scale-Up: A new tally finds over 9,900 electric buses operating across Latin America, highlighting fleet electrification as a growing demand driver for power systems.

Oil & Gas Infrastructure: Vallourec won two extra ExxonMobil Guyana line-pipe orders for deepwater Hammerhead and Longtail on the Stabroek block, covering 145+ km and ~40,000 tonnes, including insulated pipe and anti-corrosion coatings, with a Brazil plant upgrade to support delivery. Energy Security & Data: Venezuela’s acting president Delcy Rodríguez inaugurated a PDVSA Hydrocarbon Technology and Data Management Center to centralize sovereign oil and gas information, boost predictive maintenance, and expand automation and AI for the sector. Offshore Wind Policy Risk (US): The Trump administration’s proposed 2027 offshore wind inspection fees would add major costs—Interior cites oil-and-gas “similar” fees, but analysts say the numbers could effectively choke projects. Nuclear Safety: UN nuclear chief Rafael Grossi warned of a growing pattern of attacks on nuclear power plants, citing strikes near Barakah and concerns from other conflict zones. Regional Politics & Trade: Colombia rejected Ecuador’s tariff rollback tied to an opposition candidate, calling it “deliberate interference” ahead of Sunday’s presidential vote. Geopolitics & Markets: US officials said they’re “more than capable” of resuming war with Iran, while negotiations remain unresolved—another reminder of how Strait of Hormuz risk can swing energy prices.